亲爱的研友该休息了!由于当前在线用户较少,发布求助请尽量完整地填写文献信息,科研通机器人24小时在线,伴您度过漫漫科研夜!身体可是革命的本钱,早点休息,好梦!

Frontiers: News Event-Driven Forecasting of Commodity Prices

商品 事件(粒子物理) 事件研究 经济 业务 金融经济学 财务 古生物学 背景(考古学) 物理 量子力学 生物
作者
Supriya Chakraborty,Srikanth Jagabathula,Lakshminarayanan Subramanian,Ashwin Venkataraman
出处
期刊:Manufacturing & Service Operations Management [Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences]
标识
DOI:10.1287/msom.2022.0641
摘要

Problem definition: Commodity prices have exhibited significant volatility in recent times, which poses an exogenous risk factor for commodity-processing and commodity-trading firms. Accurate commodity price forecasts can help firms leverage data-driven procurement policies that incorporate the underlying price volatility for financial and operational hedging decisions. However, historical prices alone are insufficient to obtain reasonable forecasts because of the extreme volatility. Methodology/results: Building on the hypothesis that commodity prices are driven by real-world events, we propose a method that automatically extracts events from news articles and combines them with price data using a neural network-based predictive model to forecast prices. In addition to achieving a high prediction accuracy that outperforms several benchmarks (by up to 13%), our proposed model is also interpretable, which allows us to identify meaningful events driving the price fluctuations. We found that the events frequently associated with major fluctuations in the price include “natural,” “hike,” “policy,” and “elections,” all of which are known drivers of price change. We used a corpus containing about 1.6 million news articles of a major Indian newspaper spanning 15 years and daily prices of four crops (onion, potato, rice, and wheat) in India to perform this study. Our proposed approach is flexible and can be used to predict other time series data, such as disease incidence levels or macroeconomic indicators, that are also influenced by real-world events. Managerial implications: Firms can leverage price forecasts from our system to design inventory and procurement policies in the face of uncertain commodity prices. Commodity merchants can also use the forecasts to design optimal storage policies for physical trading of commodities when prices are volatile. Our findings can also significantly impact policymakers, who can leverage the information of impending price changes and associated events to mitigate the negative effects of price shocks. History: This paper has been accepted in the Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Frontiers in Operations Initiative. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0641 .
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
刚刚
1秒前
zjc发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
sqb发布了新的文献求助10
6秒前
ding应助高贵小兔子采纳,获得30
11秒前
20秒前
23秒前
沉默的虔完成签到,获得积分10
23秒前
28秒前
第五点完成签到 ,获得积分10
30秒前
葛力完成签到,获得积分10
35秒前
激动的晓筠完成签到 ,获得积分10
35秒前
梦回与她完成签到,获得积分10
44秒前
文艺的枫叶完成签到 ,获得积分10
45秒前
52秒前
1分钟前
万能图书馆应助YZF采纳,获得10
1分钟前
田様应助震动的嘉懿采纳,获得10
1分钟前
今后应助xx采纳,获得30
1分钟前
量子星尘发布了新的文献求助10
1分钟前
科目三应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
Rondab应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
Rondab应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
FashionBoy应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
Rondab应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
1分钟前
天天快乐应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
Rondab应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
1分钟前
1分钟前
彳亍完成签到,获得积分10
1分钟前
开霁完成签到 ,获得积分10
1分钟前
1分钟前
脑洞疼应助zjc采纳,获得10
1分钟前
zjc完成签到,获得积分20
1分钟前
机灵的衬衫完成签到 ,获得积分10
1分钟前
孟筱完成签到 ,获得积分10
1分钟前
FashionBoy应助高贵小兔子采纳,获得10
1分钟前
2分钟前
云舒发布了新的文献求助30
2分钟前
自然的如南完成签到,获得积分10
2分钟前
高分求助中
The Mother of All Tableaux Order, Equivalence, and Geometry in the Large-scale Structure of Optimality Theory 2400
Ophthalmic Equipment Market by Devices(surgical: vitreorentinal,IOLs,OVDs,contact lens,RGP lens,backflush,diagnostic&monitoring:OCT,actorefractor,keratometer,tonometer,ophthalmoscpe,OVD), End User,Buying Criteria-Global Forecast to2029 2000
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind (Sixth Edition) 1000
Optimal Transport: A Comprehensive Introduction to Modeling, Analysis, Simulation, Applications 800
Official Methods of Analysis of AOAC INTERNATIONAL 600
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 588
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3960030
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3506241
关于积分的说明 11128455
捐赠科研通 3238225
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1789595
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 871829
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 803056