Corneal Biomechanical Properties to Predict Prognosis of Abnormal Tomographic Corneas: A Prospective Cohort Study

•Biomechanics of stable abnormal tomography corneas are stronger than subclinical keratoconus. •Stronger corneal biomechanics might account for the stability of corneal tomography. •Biomechanical stability index can predict prognosis of abnormal tomographic corneas. •Biomechanical stability index is the reference for undergo corneal cross-linking. Purpose To analyze the corneal biomechanical properties in patients with abnormal corneal tomography (ACT) and predict their stability using the biomechanical stability index (BSI). Design Prospective cohort study. Methods Setting: Multicenter study. Study population: This study included 385 eyes of 278 patients with stable ACT (n = 70), subclinical keratoconus (SKC, n = 65), keratoconus (n = 65), normal controls (NL, n = 142). Forty-three eyes with first-visit ACT were included in a separate cohort (follow-up ACT group). Observation procedure: Tomographical and biomechanical parameters (Pentacam and Corvis ST) were recorded. Main outcome measures: Nonparametric tests were used for comparison. Logistic regression was employed to introduce BSI to separate stable ACT and SKC accurately. An independent dataset of 43 first-visit ACT eyes was followed up for 1 year to validate BSI's accuracy and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Results The tomographical and biomechanical parameters in patients with Stable ACT remained stable over the follow-up period (12.73 ± 2.57 months, P > .05). Stable ACT had 12/14 biomechanical parameters different (P < .05) from SKC but not different from NL (P > .05). With a cut-off value of 0.585, BSI demonstrated the strongest ability to distinguish between stable ACT and SKC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.991), with 93.85% sensitivity and 97.14% specificity. During the 1-year follow-up of 43 eyes (follow-up ACT group), 30 remained stable. The accuracy, PPV, and NPV of the BSI were 95.35%, 100%, and 93.75%, respectively. Conclusions Biomechanical properties of patients with stable abnormal tomography corneas were stronger than SKC and close to normal corneas, which may explain the reason for tomographic stability. The BSI may be useful for predicting disease progression in patients with ACT and the possible management of corneal cross-linking at the first visit. To analyze the corneal biomechanical properties in patients with abnormal corneal tomography (ACT) and predict their stability using the biomechanical stability index (BSI). Prospective cohort study. Setting: Multicenter study. Study population: This study included 385 eyes of 278 patients with stable ACT (n = 70), subclinical keratoconus (SKC, n = 65), keratoconus (n = 65), normal controls (NL, n = 142). Forty-three eyes with first-visit ACT were included in a separate cohort (follow-up ACT group). Observation procedure: Tomographical and biomechanical parameters (Pentacam and Corvis ST) were recorded. Main outcome measures: Nonparametric tests were used for comparison. Logistic regression was employed to introduce BSI to separate stable ACT and SKC accurately. An independent dataset of 43 first-visit ACT eyes was followed up for 1 year to validate BSI's accuracy and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). The tomographical and biomechanical parameters in patients with Stable ACT remained stable over the follow-up period (12.73 ± 2.57 months, P > .05). Stable ACT had 12/14 biomechanical parameters different (P < .05) from SKC but not different from NL (P > .05). With a cut-off value of 0.585, BSI demonstrated the strongest ability to distinguish between stable ACT and SKC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.991), with 93.85% sensitivity and 97.14% specificity. During the 1-year follow-up of 43 eyes (follow-up ACT group), 30 remained stable. The accuracy, PPV, and NPV of the BSI were 95.35%, 100%, and 93.75%, respectively. Biomechanical properties of patients with stable abnormal tomography corneas were stronger than SKC and close to normal corneas, which may explain the reason for tomographic stability. The BSI may be useful for predicting disease progression in patients with ACT and the possible management of corneal cross-linking at the first visit.