Temporal and spatial variation analysis of habitat quality on the PLUS-InVEST model for Ebinur Lake Basin, China

The improvement of habitat quality is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. Irrational development activities lead to the degradation of habitat quality and loss of biodiversity, especially in arid inland areas where the ecological environment is fragile. In this study, the InVEST model is used to evaluate the habitat quality and degradation degree of the Ebinur Lake Basin from 1990 to 2020, while the PLUS model is used to predict the land use change in the Ebinur Lake Basin under various scenarios. Combined with the results of ecological zoning planning, the spatial distribution of land use and habitat quality under the inertia development (ID) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios in 2030 were compared and analyzed, and the optimal scenario was selected. The following four conclusions are drawn: (1) From 1990 to 2020, cultivated land, grassland, and construction land significantly increased, while forest land, water bodies, and unused land significantly decreased. (2) The habitat quality of the watershed showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend. The area proportion of high habitat quality has always exceeded 50 % of the total area of the watershed with a high level of habitat quality. (3) Furthermore, combined with habitat quality and the human footprint index (HFI), ecological zoning planning for the basin was conducted. The three ecological zones were divided into key protected areas, key restoration areas, and moderate development zones, with area proportions of 53.69 %, 29.37 %, and 16.93 %, respectively. (4) By comparing habitat quality under the ID scenario and the EP scenario in 2030, we found that the area of high habitat quality increased by 2730.06 km2 under the EP scenario, which improved the overall level of habitat quality, and was more conducive to the ecological security protection of the basin. The results of this study may benefit the analysis of the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of habitat quality in the Ebinur Lake Basin and provide a reference for the improvement of habitat quality in the inland arid region.