Predictability of noninvasive liver fibrosis score for cardiac events in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Abstract Background Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have a higher risk of cardiac events. Although the severity of liver fibrosis is related to worsening prognosis in patients with NAFLD, it is unclear whether the noninvasive liver fibrosis score has a predictive value for cardiac events. Purpose To investigate the relationship between noninvasive liver fibrosis score and the future risk of cardiac events. Methods Among 13,368 patients with NAFLD diagnosed using ultrasonography, 4,071 patients were evaluated. Liver fibrosis was assessed and divided into three groups based on the Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index (cut-off value of 1.30 and 2.67) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) (cut-off values of -1.455 and 0.676), respectively. The primary outcome of this study was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization due to coronary artery disease. Results The median age of the evaluated patients was 61 [52–69] years, and 2,201 [54.1%] were male. After a median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 179 (4.4%) patients experienced MACE. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis demonstrated that MACE increased progressively with theFIB4 index (log-rank, p < 0.001) and NFS (log-rank, p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that the higher the FIB4 index, the higher the risk for MACE (compared to the group [reference] with low FIB4 index values, hazard ratio [HR] was 1.860 for the group with intermediate FIB4 index values [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.326–2.610; p<0.001] and 3.325 for the group with high FIB4 index values [95% CI, 2.017–5.479; p<0.001]), and the higher the NFS, the higher the risk for MACE (compared to the group [reference] with low NFSvalues, HR was 1.938 for the group with intermediate NFS values [95% CI, 1.391–2.699; p<0.001] and 3.492 for the group with high NFSvalues [95% CI, 1.997–6.105; p<0.001]). Conclusions The FIB4 index and NFS impacted the predictability of MACE in patients with NAFLD.Kaplan–Meier analysis for MACE