Personalized progression modelling and prediction in Parkinson’s disease with a novel multi-modal graph approach

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a complex neurological disorder characterized by dopaminergic neuron degeneration, leading to diverse motor and non-motor impairments. This variability complicates accurate progression modelling and early-stage prediction. Traditional classification methods based on clinical symptoms are often limited by disease heterogeneity. This study introduces an graph-based interpretable personalized progression method, utilizing data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) and Stroke Parkinson's Disease Biomarker Program (PDBP). Our approach integrates multimodal inter-individual and intra-individual data, including clinical assessments, MRI, and genetic information to make multi-dimension predictions. Validated using the PDBP dataset from 12 to 36 months, our AdaMedGraph method demonstrated strong performance, achieving AUC values of 0.748 and 0.714 for the 12-month Hoehn and Yahr Scale and Movement Disorder Society-Sponsored Revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) III on the PPMI test set. Ablation analysis reveals the importance of baseline clinical assessment predictors. This novel framework improves personalized care and offers insights into unique disease trajectories in PD patients.