Towards low-carbon domestic circulation: Insights from the spatiotemporal variations and socioeconomic determinants of emissions embedded within cross-province trade in China

For a country like China with unbalanced development pattern among provinces, domestic circulation (i.e., cross-province trade) is important for the long-term stability and prosperous development of economic market. However, with the rapid advance of integration of domestic regional economy, while expanding the internal market scale and deepening the provincial division of labor network for promoting the economic growth, the carbon emissions embedded within the cross-province traded products and services cannot be underestimated. Under the background of climate-trade dilemma, it is necessary to exploring the spatiotemporal variations and socioeconomic determinants of provincial "invisible" carbon emissions for a better understanding of trade-induced eco-environmental effects. To that end, this study developed an environmental-economic system model through integrating the environmentally extended multiregional input-output method and weighted average structural decomposition analysis technique to explore the trade-related emissions at the provincial level and generate the mitigation-management strategies for decisionmakers. Overall, more than half the emissions were embedded within cross-province goods and services trade over the whole study period. Furthermore, the distribution of traded emissions showed obvious spatial heterogeneity and great unbalance was existed between provincial imports and exports. Among all provinces, carbon surplus provinces were always more than deficit ones and the trading patterns of approximately 65% regions remained unchanged during 2007-2017. Remarkably, the emissions trading pattern undergone transition from carbon deficit to carbon surplus in provinces like Henan, Hubei, Guizhou, and so on. Conversely, provinces like Jilin, Shanghai, and Xinjiang showed opposite change. With the prevalence of online payment and electronic commerce in the future, the central and sub-national government could consider launching a pilot project for the design and creation of personal carbon consumption account in the carbon surplus provinces such as Guangdong, Henan, and Jiangsu. Meanwhile, for the provinces with larger carbon exports, it is necessary to establish the horizontal high technical transfer channels and vertical compensation mechanisms such as financial subsidies for improving the low-carbon production level. Our findings provided a holistic depict of national traded emissions at the provincial level, highlighting the importance of cross-province emission effect in exploring ways to promote the low-carbon transition of domestic circulation and fulfill the high-quality development of 'dual circulation' new pattern and successful achievement of 'double carbon' solemn commitment.