Optimal pavement management strategy development with a stochastic model and its practical application to Ugandan national roads

路面管理 运筹学 计算机科学 运营管理 运输工程 工程类 可靠性工程 业务
作者
Felix Obunguta,Kakuya Matsushima
出处
期刊:International Journal of Pavement Engineering [Taylor & Francis]
卷期号:23 (7): 2405-2419 被引量:15
标识
DOI:10.1080/10298436.2020.1857759
摘要

This study examines the applicability to developing countries of a pavement management system (PMS) with less data (two-point) requirement to complement current practice. Due to limited capacity, many developing countries like Uganda have adopted a PMS after specified intervals regardless of deterioration rate (i.e. time-dependent policy). Maintenance planning based on deterioration rate (i.e. condition-dependent policy), as proposed, would be more ideal because pavement deterioration is stochastic. A PMS was developed using the Markov hazard model and then an empirical study was conducted for surveyed Ugandan national road network comparing both policies considering a basic plan and a fixed budget. A greedy algorithm was used to select sections for repair based on worst condition first (for time-dependent) or fastest deterioration first (for condition-dependent). A shift to the condition-dependent policy increased percentages of network in good and fair condition by 8.6% and 2.5%, respectively, and reduced percentages in poor and bad condition by 8.5% and 2.6%, respectively. Additionally, maintenance plans with and without preventive maintenance were compared considering a fixed budget. Preventive maintenance further increased percentage in good condition by 27.4% and reduced percentages in poor and bad condition by 11.6% and 4.2%, respectively, with a 53.5% reduction in life cycle costs.
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