Robust Radiomics Models for Predicting HIFU Prognosis in Uterine Fibroids Using SHAP Explanations: A Multicenter Cohort Study

This study sought to develop and validate different machine learning (ML) models that leverage non-contrast MRI radiomics to predict the degree of nonperfusion volume ratio (NVPR) of high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment for uterine fibroids, equipping clinicians with an early prediction tool for decision-making. This study conducted a retrospective analysis on 221 patients with uterine fibroids who received HIFU treatment and were divided into a training set (N = 117), internal validation (N = 49), and an external test set (N = 55). The 851 radiomics features were extracted from T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), and the max-relevance and min-redundancy (mRMR) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were applied for feature selection. Several ML models were constructed by logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM). These models underwent internal and external validation, and the best model's feature significance was assessed via the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. Four significant non-contrast MRI radiomics features were identified, with the SVM model outperforming others in both internal and external validations, and the AUCs of the T2WI models were 0.860, 0.847, and 0.777, respectively. SHAP analysis highlighted five critical predictors of postoperative NVPR degree, encompassing two radiomics features from non-contrast MRI and three clinical data indicators. The SVM model combining radiomics features and clinical parameters effectively predicts NVPR degree post-HIFU, which enables timely and effective interventions of HIFU.