Measuring uncertainty and criticality in network planning by PERT-path technique

The use of uncertainty and criticality measures in network planning of engineering projects by PERT networks is limited in practice because of their unreliability or complexity. The measures appear as inappropriate to support the definition of contractual obligations when based on uncertain information. The author proposes new uncertainty and criticality measures based on the identification and analysis by PERT-path technique of possible completion sequences of project activities. The measures prove to be effective in project planning and contracting. An algorithm and a stochastic analytical model suitable for the quantification of the measures concerned are proposed. A numerical example is developed.