A Kinetic Model for Blood Biomarker Levels After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) imposes a significant economic and social burden. The diagnosis and prognosis of mild TBI, also called concussion, is challenging. Concussions are common among contact sport athletes. After a blow to the head, it is often difficult to determine who has had a concussion, who should be withheld from play, if a concussed athlete is ready to return to the field, and which concussed athlete will develop a post-concussion syndrome. Biomarkers can be detected in the cerebrospinal fluid and blood after traumatic brain injury and their levels may have prognostic value. Despite significant investigation, questions remain as to the trajectories of blood biomarker levels over time after mild TBI. Modeling the kinetic behavior of these biomarkers could be informative. We propose a one-compartment kinetic model for S100B, UCH-L1, NF-L, GFAP, and tau biomarker levels after mild TBI based on accepted pharmacokinetic models for oral drug absorption. We approximated model parameters using previously published studies. Since parameter estimates were approximate, we did uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Using estimated kinetic parameters for each biomarker, we applied the model to an available post-concussion biomarker dataset of UCH-L1, GFAP, tau, and NF-L biomarkers levels. We have demonstrated the feasibility of modeling blood biomarker levels after mild TBI with a one compartment kinetic model. More work is needed to better establish model parameters and to understand the implications of the model for diagnostic use of these blood biomarkers for mild TBI.