Scenario prediction of public health emergencies using infectious disease dynamics model and dynamic Bayes

This study was aimed to discuss the predictive value of infectious disease dynamics model (IDD model) and dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for scenario deduction of public health emergencies (PHEs). Based on the evolution law of PHEs and the meta-scenario representation of basic knowledge, this study established a DBN scenario deduction model for scenario deduction and evolution path analysis of PHEs. At the same time, based on the average field dynamics model of the SIR network, the dimensionality reduction process was performed to calculate the epidemic scale and epidemic time based on the IDD model, so as to determine the calculation methods of threshold value and epidemic time under emergency measures (quarantine). The Corona Virus Disease (COVID) epidemic was undertaken as an example to analyze the results of DBN scenario deduction, and the infectious disease dynamics model was used to analyze the number of reproductive numbers, peak arrival time, epidemic time, and latency time of the COVID epidemic. It was found that after the M1 measure was used to process the S1 state, the state probability and the probability of being true (T) were the highest, which were 91.05 and 90.21, respectively. In the sixth stage of the development of the epidemic, the epidemic had developed to level 5, the number of infected people was about 26, and the estimated loss was about 220 million yuan. The comprehensive cumulative foreground (CF) values of O1 ∼ O3 schemes were -1.34, -1.21, and -0.77, respectively, and the final CF values were -1.35, 0.01, and -0.08, respectively. The final CF value of O2 was significantly higher than the other two options. The household infection probability was the highest, which was 0.37 and 0.35 in Wuhan and China, respectively. Under the measures of home quarantine, the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID in China and Wuhan were 1.503 (95% confidential interval (CI) = 1.328 ∼ 1.518) and 1.729 (95% CI = 1.107 ∼ 1.264), respectively, showing good fits with the real data. On the 21st day after the quarantine measures were taken, the number of COVID across the country had an obvious peak, with the confirmed cases of 24495, and the model prediction value was 24085 (95% CI = 23988 ∼ 25056). The incubation period 1/q was shortened from 8 days to 3 days, and the number of confirmed cases showed an upward trend. The peak period of confirmed cases was advanced, shortening the overall epidemic time. It showed that the prediction results of scenario deduction based on DBN were basically consistent with the actual development scenario and development status of the epidemic. It could provide corresponding decisions for the prevention and control of COVID based on the relevant parameters of the infectious disease dynamic model, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the scenario deduction method proposed in this study.