Logistics Forecast of Malacca Strait Port Using Grey GM (1, N) Model

Wang, H. and Wang, L., 2020. Logistics forecast of Malacca strait port using grey GM (1, N) model. In: Yang, Y.; Mi, C.; Zhao, L., and Lam, S. (eds.), Global Topics and New Trends in Coastal Research: Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 103, pp. 634–638. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.There are many influencing factors of port logistics, which have complex uncertainties and time variability, which bring great difficulty to the prediction. Therefore, according to the actual situation of ports in the strait of Malacca, a grey GM (1, N) model was proposed to predict the port logistics in the strait of Malacca. This paper analyzes the logistics transportation situation of Malacca straits ports, according to its geographical location and waterway traffic, reasonably allocates resources, uses the traditional grey GM (1, N) model and integrates it with the neural network to obtain the accurate prediction value, establishes the logistics prediction model, and completes the logistics prediction research of Malacca straits ports based on the grey GM (1, N) model. A control experiment was designed and compared with two kinds of conventional prediction results. The experiment confirmed that applying the grey GM (1, N) model to the prediction of port logistics in the strait of Malacca can control the prediction error at about 0.58%, and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved compared with the conventional one.