Planning a Water–Food–Energy–Ecology Nexus System toward Sustainability: A Copula Bi-level Fractional Programming Method

水力发电 食物能量 水资源 持续性 环境科学 Nexus(标准) 土地利用 目标规划 生态学 水资源管理 环境资源管理 环境经济学 计算机科学 经济 工程类 运筹学 生物 生物化学 嵌入式系统 化学
作者
Y. F. Zhang,Yongping Li,Guohe Huang,Yuan Ma,Xiong Zhou
出处
期刊:ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering [American Chemical Society]
卷期号:9 (45): 15212-15228 被引量:12
标识
DOI:10.1021/acssuschemeng.1c04677
摘要

A copula bi-level fractional programming (CBFP) method is developed for planning the water–food–energy–ecology (WFEE) nexus system. CBFP has advantages in (i) dealing with ratio-objective problems, (ii) balancing the conflicts between hierarchical decision levels, and (iii) reflecting joint risks of correlated uncertain variables. Then, a CBFP–WFEE model is formulated to the Ili-Balkhash basin in Central Asia, in which 108 scenarios associated with different irrigation efficiencies, ecological-flow demands (EBW), and water–land resources have been examined. Solutions of water allocation, hydropower generation, and land-use pattern are obtained. Our major findings are as follows: (i) from 2021 to 2050, water allocation to livestock in East Kazakhstan would remarkably increase (by 40.9%) when water allocation to food is satisfied; (ii) hydropower generation would increase with the rising ecological flows and arable land resources; (iii) EBW is the key factor influencing the water inflow to the Balkhash Lake; (iv) the share of ecosystem water allocation would exceed 17.5% by 2050, and grassland area would rank in the first place of the ecosystem. Compared with conventional bi-level stochastic programming and single-level fractional programming models, the CBFP–WFEE model can achieve a higher ecosystem service value and higher efficiency of water–land resources, which can provide more feasible and sustainable alternatives for the WFEE nexus system. The obtained results can help balance the contradictions among water shortage, economic development, and ecology protection, as well as provide synergic management strategies for regional sustainability.
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