When radiographs are normal in a young adult patient with snuffbox tenderness after a fall, we turn to more sophisticated radiological examination to rule out a fracture of the scaphoid. But each examination can miss a fracture or suggest a fracture when one is not present. There is no test that is both reliable and accurate in the diagnosis of a scaphoid fracture among patients with a suspected fracture. Both patients and health providers crave certainty, but we can only estimate the probability of a scaphoid fracture in this context.