Landscape Dynamics and Environmental Fragility Zoning in Hinh River Basin: Insights for protecting natural ecosystems

The landscapes in the Hinh River Basin are crucial and highly sensitive to climate change for the coastal province of Phu Yen and the entire south-central coastal region of Vietnam, offering vital environmental services to its downstream areas. Hinh River Basin has a rich system of rivers and streams and abundant surface water resources. However, it remains one of the region's top localities at risk and a very vulnerable region. This study aims to evaluate the changes in landscape (LC) over 10 years (2010-2023) and predict LC over the next six years using machine-learning (ML) algorithms on Google Earth Engine. To achieve these study goals, we establish: (i) potential environmental fragility (PEF) levels based on: terrain slope; geological domains; river hierarchy; percentage of sand in soil; annual mean precipitations; and (ii) emergent environmental fragility (EEF) levels through the addition of LC parameter to model. The methodology includes integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) into a Geographic Information System (GIS). Results show that three LC types (water, annual industrial crop, forest) are related to extremely high EEF. The predictive model suggests that, by 2030, the forest and annual industrial crop LCs in the study area will increase by around 20%. The analysis results show that there has been an increase in the area of planted forests, which can confirm the futher effectiveness of agricultural, forestry, afforestation and forest protection programmes in the study area (Plan for the implementation of forestry development strategy for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050, Phu Yen Province, N o 126/KH-UBND 13/7/2021; and Decision on the approval of the project for planting 15 million trees in Phu Yen Province for the period 2021-2025, N o 1646/QĐ-UBND 16/11/2021).