景观生态学
中国
构造盆地
生态系统服务
土地利用
土地覆盖
生态系统
地理
自然保护
环境科学
土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业
可持续发展
封面(代数)
水文学(农业)
环境资源管理
自然地理学
生态学
水资源管理
地质学
地貌学
生物
工程类
考古
栖息地
岩土工程
机械工程
作者
Xiaoji Zeng,Yusi Huang,Hualin Xie,Qun Ma,Jiacheng Li
标识
DOI:10.1007/s10980-024-01976-z
摘要
Decades of intensifying human activities have led to drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), resulting in significant changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV), thereby affecting regional sustainability. We focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the landscape pattern and ESV of the PLB and used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to predict LULC changes in 2050. We evaluated landscape patterns using landscape metrics and calculated ESV using the ecosystem service equivalent factor method. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between landscape patterns and ESV from 1990 to 2020. Then, we combined the PLUS model and the ecosystem service equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050. From 1990 to 2020, the LULC of the PLB changed to varying degrees. The PLB has undergone a rapid process of landscape fragmentation, and the total ESV of the PLB has decreased. The total ESV was positively correlated with the CONTAG index and negatively correlated with the SHDI index. Between 2020 and 2050, the ESV of the PLB is projected to decrease under the NDS (nature development scenario) and EDS (economic development scenario) and increase under the EPS (ecological protection scenario). ESV responded to changes in landscape pattern. We recommend that the PLB should increase patch connectivity. Additionally, future development in the PLB should prioritize ecological protection to prevent further declines in ESV.
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