The Effect of Long-Term Particulate Matter Exposure on Respiratory Mortality: Cohort Study in China

Abstract Background Particulate matter (PM), which affects respiratory health, has been well documented; however, substantial evidence from large cohorts is still limited, particularly in highly polluted countries and for PM 1 . Objective Our objective was to examine the potential causal links between long-term exposure to PMs (PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and more importantly, PM 1 ) and respiratory mortality. Methods A total of 580,757 participants from the Guangzhou area, China, were recruited from 2009 to 2015 and followed up through 2020. The annual average concentrations of PMs at a 1-km spatial resolution around the residential addresses were estimated using validated spatiotemporal models. The marginal structural Cox model was used to estimate the associations of PM exposure with respiratory mortality, accounting for time-varying PM exposure. Results were stratified by demographics and lifestyle behaviors factors. Results Among the participants, the mean age was 48.33 (SD 17.55) years, and 275,676 (47.47%) of them were men. During the follow-up period, 7260 deaths occurred due to respiratory diseases. The annual average concentrations of PM 1 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 showed a declining trend during the follow-up period. After adjusting for confounders, a 6.6% (95% CI 5.6%‐7.6%), 4.2% (95% CI 3.6%‐4.7%), and 4.0% (95% CI 3.6%‐4.5%) increase in the risk of respiratory mortality was observed following each 1-μg/m 3 increase in concentrations of PM 1 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 , respectively. In addition, older participants, nonsmokers, participants with higher exercise frequency, and those exposed to a lower normalized difference vegetation index tended to be more susceptible to the effects of PMs. Furthermore, participants in the low-exposure group tended to be at a 7.6% and 2.7% greater risk of respiratory mortality following PM 1 and PM 10 exposure, respectively, compared to the entire cohort. Conclusions This cohort study provides causal clues of the respiratory impact of long-term ambient PM exposure, indicating that PM reduction efforts may continuously benefit the population’s respiratory health.