Exploration, exploitation and funding success: Evidence from junior scientists supported by the Chinese Young Scientists Fund

Scientists' choice of research questions is often shaped by an "essential tension" between exploring new or risky ideas and exploiting conventional wisdoms. However, we still lack understanding regarding the association between exploration, exploitation, and funding success, which is a crucial aspect of career development for junior scientists in today's highly competitive environment. In this study, we adopt a systematic approach to analyze the career histories of over 20,000 junior scientists supported by the Chinese Young Scientists Fund. We quantitatively assess the level of exploration during the Young Scientists Fund cycle using two approaches, and focus on the association of exploration on securing subsequent funding. Despite the positive relationship between exploring new topics and novelty, our findings reveal that junior scientists who choose to explore new research topics in the first funding cycle face significantly lower chances of obtaining subsequent funding. Additionally, among those who do secure subsequent funding, individuals who engage in exploratory research in the first funding cycle tend to wait longer. Furthermore, our study examines the predictive power of various observed variables at the individual level in predicting funding success, finding modest predictive power. Overall, this work sheds light on the underlying patterns of individual careers and has policy implications in supporting junior scientists engaged in exploratory research. By unraveling the dynamics between exploration, exploitation, and funding success, our study offers valuable insights to nurture early career researchers.