Rockburst tendency prediction based on an integrating method of combination weighting and matter-element extension theory: A case study in the Bayu Tunnel of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

The Bayu Tunnel is the most problematic tunnel project in the Lhasa-Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway. Rockbursts have occurred frequently during the construction process, which has seriously threatened the safety of construction workers and equipment. Aiming at the rockburst hazard prediction problem of the Bayu Tunnel, in this paper an integrating method of combination weighting and matter-element extension theory is proposed. This method introduces the rock brittleness evaluation index BICSS, Russenes criterion and rock mass integrity coefficient as the main rockburst evaluation indexes, which characterized the control factors of rock physical and mechanical property, surrounding rock stress and rock mass integrity on rockburst tendency, respectively. Then the rockburst tendency evaluation index system is constructed. The weight of each rockburst control factor is determined by the combination weighting algorithm of triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process (TFN-AHP), criteria importance though intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), and determination of comprehensive weight (MDI). The correlation degree between the rockburst sample and rockburst grade can be calculated using the matter-element extension theory, after which the prediction of rockburst grade is carried out. Finally, the applicability, superiority and the necessity of selected rockburst control factors in this method are verified and discussed further. The research results provide a new analysis method and technical means for rockburst tendency assessment of deep tunnel. • A novel integrating method for rockburst tendency prediction is proposed • Matter-element extension model and combination weighting method are integrated • The rock brittleness evaluation index BICSS is involved in rockburst tendency prediction model • Rock properties, complex geological structures and geostress are considered