Innovative Multi-Variable Model Combining MRI Radiomics and Plasma Indexes Predicts Alzheimer's Disease conversion: Evidence from a Two-Cohort Longitudinal Study

To explore the complementary relationship between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomic and plasma biomarkers in the early diagnosis and conversion prediction of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), our study aims to develop an innovative multivariable prediction model that integrates those two for predicting conversion results in AD. This longitudinal multicentric cohort study included 2 independent cohorts: the Sino Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Decline (SILCODE) project and the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We collected comprehensive assessments, MRI, plasma samples, and amyloid positron emission tomography data. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to combine plasma and MRI radiomics biomarkers and generate a new composite indicator. The optimal model’s performance and generalizability were assessed across populations in 2 cross-racial cohorts. A total of 897 subjects were included, including 635 from the SILCODE cohort (mean [SD] age, 64.93 [6.78] years; 343 [63%] female) and 262 from the ADNI cohort (mean [SD] age, 73.96 [7.06] years; 140 [53%] female). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the optimal model was 0.9414 and 0.8979 in the training and validation dataset, respectively. A calibration analysis displayed excellent consistency between the prognosis and actual observation. The findings of the present study provide a valuable diagnostic tool for identifying at-risk individuals for AD and highlight the pivotal role of the radiomic biomarker. Importantly, built upon data-driven analyses commonly seen in previous radiomics studies, our research delves into AD pathology to further elucidate the underlying reasons behind the robust predictive performance of the MRI radiomic predictor.