How does ecological protection redline policy affect regional land use and ecosystem services?

Land use has been widely recognized as an important factor affecting ecosystem services. Therefore, China is applying Ecological Protection Redline (EPR) policy to conserve essential land with important ecosystem services or ecological vulnerability. This study focuses on how and how much EPR affects the ecosystem services, and relative studies are rare. This study establishes a framework and applies it to a case study in Guizhou to assess the influence on land use directly and ecosystem services indirectly under the EPR policy intervention. The framework assembles land use predictions, climate predictions, ecosystem services valuation, and scenario analysis. This study can provide simulative and quantitative evidence for EPR's influences. The results show that EPR protects the ecological land against land use changes; moreover, such protection influences non-EPR regions. Certain ecosystem services are also improved. In Guizhou, there will be an increase in soil retention and carbon sequestration and a decrease in water yield. This study can thus provide a technical framework to predict EPR's effects.