A multimodal atlas of hepatocellular carcinoma reveals convergent evolutionary paths and ‘bad apple’ effect on clinical trajectory

Background & Aims Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is a highly fatal cancer characterized by high intra-tumor heterogeneity (ITH). A panoramic understanding of its tumor evolution, in relation to its clinical trajectory, may provide novel prognostic and treatment strategies. Methods Through the Asia-Pacific Hepatocellular Carcinoma (AHCC) trials group (NCT03267641), we recruited one of the largest prospective cohorts of HCC with over 600 whole genome and transcriptome samples from 123 treatment-naïve patients. Results Using a multi-region sampling approach, we revealed seven convergent genetic evolutionary paths governed by the early driver mutations, late copy number variations and viral integrations, which stratify patient clinical trajectories after surgical resection. Furthermore, such evolutionary paths shaped the molecular profiles, leading to distinct transcriptomic subtypes. Most significantly, although we found the coexistence of multiple transcriptomic subtypes within certain tumors, patient prognosis was best predicted by the most aggressive cell fraction of the tumor, rather than by overall degree of transcriptomic ITH level – a phenomenon we termed the 'bad apple' effect. Finally, we found that characteristics throughout early and late tumor evolution provide significant and complementary prognostic power in predicting patient survival. Conclusions Taken together, our study generated a comprehensive landscape of evolutionary history for HCC and provided a rich multi-omics resource for understanding tumor heterogeneity and clinical trajectories. Clinical trial number NCT03267641 (Observational cohort) Impact and implications This prospective study, utilizing comprehensive multi-sector, multi-omics sequencing and clinical data from surgically resected HCC, reveals critical insights into the role of tumor evolution and intra-tumor heterogeneity (ITH) in determining the prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). These findings are invaluable for oncology researchers and clinicians, as they underscore the influence of distinct evolutionary paths and the 'bad apple' effect, where the most aggressive tumor fraction dictates disease progression. These insights not only enhance prognostic accuracy post-surgical resection but also pave the way for developing personalized therapies tailored to specific tumor evolutionary and transcriptomic profiles. The co-existence of multiple sub-types within the same tumor prompts a re-appraisal of the utilities of depending on single samples to represent the entire tumor and suggests the need for clinical molecular imaging. This research thus marks a significant step forward in the clinical understanding and management of HCC, underscoring the importance of integrating tumor evolutionary dynamics and multi-omics biomarkers into therapeutic decision-making.