Hepatic-associated vascular morphological assessment to predict overt hepatic encephalopathy before TIPS: a multicenter study

Abstract Background To provide patients the chance of accepting curative transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) rather than palliative treatments for portal hypertension-related variceal bleeding and ascites, we aimed to assess hepatic-associated vascular morphological change to improve the predictive accuracy of overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) risks. Methods In this multicenter study, 621 patients undergoing TIPS were subdivided into training (413 cases from 3 hospitals) and external validation datasets (208 cases from another 3 hospitals). In addition to traditional clinical factors, we assessed hepatic-associated vascular morphological changes using maximum diameter (including absolute and ratio values). Three predictive models (clinical, hepatic-associated vascular, and combined) were constructed using logistic regression. Their discrimination and calibration were compared to test the necessity of hepatic-associated vascular assessment and identify the optimal model. Furthermore, to verify the improved performance of Model C−V , we compared it with four previous models, both in discrimination and calibration. Results The combined model outperformed the clinical and hepatic-associated vascular models (training: 0.814, 0.754, 0.727; validation: 0.781, 0.679, 0.776; p < 0.050) and had the best calibration. Compared to previous models, Model C−V showed superior performance in discrimination. The high-, middle-, and low-risk populations displayed significantly different overt HE incidence ( p < 0.001). Despite the limited ability of pre-TIPS ammonia to predict overt HE risks, the combined model displayed a satisfactory ability to predict overt HE risks, both in the low- and high-ammonia subgroups. Conclusion Hepatic-associated vascular assessment improved the predictive accuracy of overt HE, ensuring curative chances by TIPS for suitable patients and providing insights for cirrhosis-related studies. Graphical Abstract