Urban shrinkage in the regional multiscale context: Spatial divergence and interaction

The consensus on the requirements of specific policies that address the ongoing population loss of cities in certain regions is growing. To design policies that can cope with this issue, a comprehensive representation of regional shrinkage patterns needs to be obtained that involves spatial heterogeneity and interaction of shrinking cities at various scales. This study explores the contributing factors of urban shrinkage at different scales and their interaction relationships in Northeast China. The results indicate that painful structural reforms, locational marginalization, and shortage of surplus agricultural labor are the key reasons for the shrinkage of prefecture-level cities, county-level cities and towns, respectively. Moreover, factors of a city, traditional industries, surplus agricultural labor, educational resources, and geological conditions, can influence the demographic trajectories of cities at other scales through spatial spillover effects. The findings offer a basis for reassessing the conventional wisdom of a simplistic association between identifying scale and urban shrinkage.