Monitoring land degradation and assessing its drivers to support sustainable development goal 15.3 in Central Asia

Land degradation has become one of the most critical environmental and socioeconomic issues in the world, particularly in Central Asia. Moreover, the realization of Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) in Central Asia faces enormous challenges in achieving the global Sustainable Development Goal 15.3 (SDG 15.3). It is critical to monitor land degradation and assess its drivers in Central Asia. In this study, an Optimal Land Degradation Index (OLDI) was established as a new index for monitoring land degradation using a constrained optimization algorithm. The spatiotemporal characteristics of LDN were monitored in Central Asia. Further analysis explored the driving force of land degradation in different areas. The results showed that 7.22% and 15.33% of the total land area exhibited land improvement and land degradation, respectively. According to abrupt change analysis, mutation changes in the OLDI were observed in 2005, 2012 and 2015. At the subnational scale, most regions in Central Asia have not achieved the goal of LDN. The residual analysis highlighted the drivers of spatial differences in land degradation performance in Central Asia. Drought was the main driving force affecting land degradation by the compound effect of decreased precipitation and increased temperature on the Ustyurt Plateau, while 24.01% of the land degradation areas resulted from anthropogenic disturbances and were mainly distributed in the areas surrounding the Aral Sea. The results also indicated that 72.56% of the land improvement areas resulted from human activities and were mainly concentrated in the Balkhash Lake Delta and the Amudarya Delta. In Central Asia, the realization of SDG 15.3 by 2030 remains a severe challenge. Restoration measures should be prioritized in land degradation areas in Central Asia to implement the LDN initiative, especially around the Aral Sea.