Refugee secondary migration from small cities: evidence from Utica, New York

Refugees in the US have increasingly been resettled in small cities, many of which have viewed refugee resettlement as a means of economic development. Using a unique geo-coded data set of almost 600 refugees from over 30 countries resettled in Utica, New York, our study offers primary evidence on the determinants of refugee intentions to migrate from their resettlement community. We find that human capital, co-ethnic enclaves, length of time in the US, and multigenerational integration play a key role in refugees' intentions to migrate. While the neighbourhood density of refugees has no impact, increases in the density of co-ethnic enclaves have a strong negative effect on the intent to leave in the near future. This effect is particularly strong during refugees' first five years in the US. Generation 1.5 refugees are significantly more likely to plan to move than those who arrived to their resettlement community at an older age. Our findings highlight the effects of country of origin, education, age, past family migration, and religious affiliation. For small-city governments and resettlement agencies seeking to retain resettled refugees, our results suggest a focus on building stronger co-ethnic enclaves over an emphasis on the diversity of the resettled refugee population.