Regrowth or smart decline? A policy response to shrinking cities based on a resilience perspective

Enhancing urban resilience is increasingly crucial for cities to achieve sustainable development. However, existing studies have a limited understanding of the resilience of shrinking cities and their response policies. Taking Yichun, a typical shrinking city in China, as an example, this study constructs a system dynamics model to assess urban resilience from a subsystem perspective and explores the relationship between the dynamic development of resilience and urban shrinkage from 2008 to 2028. Then, a smart decline response policy of Yichun is put forward. The findings indicate that the evolution curve of urban resilience shows a fluctuating growth trend as a whole and that the dominant subsystems of resilience are changing. The occurrence of urban shrinkage inhibits the dynamic development of urban resilience and has various effects on the subsystems of resilience. Compared with the regrowth strategy, the smart decline strategy can effectively improve the resilience and mitigate the adverse impact of urban shrinkage on the resilience under the condition of limited resources. Resilience can be proven to be a viable perspective to help formulate a response strategy of shrinking cities. These findings will enhance comprehension of the resilience of shrinking cities and provide a reference to address urban shrinkage and formulate corresponding governance strategies.