Analysis of fleet deployment in the international container shipping market using simultaneous equations modelling

The shipping industry is a capital-intensive industry in which ship investment and demolition are directly related to the company's profitability, transportation capacity, and fleet structure. Thus, companies need to consider investment and demolition activities carefully before making decisions about fleet deployment. This study focuses on decisions related to investment in new and second-hand vessels as well as vessel demolition in different sub-markets of the container shipping market at the same time. By considering market factors, operating conditions, and shipping alliances, we developed a systematic model for the container market. This model innovatively employs a simultaneous equations model (SEM) to analyze fleet deployment decisions and uses the three-stage least squares method to avoid endogenous effects. The results indicate that shipping alliances, fleet deployment, and bunker price all have significant effects on the investment and demolition decisions of shipping companies. We further discuss the strategic decisions of shipping companies related to joining shipping alliances and highlight the considerations of larger companies when expanding (primarily squeezing out competition and responding to the market). The results provide valuable information for shipping companies to determine the best ship deployment strategies and avoid overcapacity.