The shift in ideal family size: Examining the impact of marriage and parenthood

Motivated by role theory and the concept of the “self-fulfilling prophecy”, this study examines how entries into marriage and parenthood affect the fertility ideals of men and women in China. To address this question, we apply propensity score matching estimators to data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) within a counterfactual framework. We find that marriage and parenthood have a positive effect on fertility ideals, and this result remains robust when we apply difference-in-differences matching estimates. In terms of gender asymmetry in marriage, men and women respond differently to marriage and parenthood. Entry into marriage has a positive effect on men's fertility ideals, while parenthood influences women's ideals. Beyond the average treatment effect, we further examine heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of estimated propensity scores. The study reveals that the life transition treatment effect is the highest among those with a moderate propensity for entering into marriage and parenthood.