Slow response of the gas hydrate system to ridge erosion and sea-level rise: Insights from double BSRs on the southern Hikurangi margin (New Zealand)

We analyse reflection seismic profiles across the outer accretionary wedge at the convergent New Zealand Hikurangi margin. We identify several, in some case stacked, bottom simulating reflections (BSRs). We interpret these multiple BSRs to record changes in gas hydrate stability. With the aid of gas hydrate systems modelling, we identify two geological drivers that affect gas hydrate stability: (1.) rapid sedimentation in trough basins and (2.) uplift and erosion of thrust ridges. Rapid sedimentation in trough basins buries gas hydrates that formed above the former base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS). Locally, we observe a remnant BSR from this process, likely due to residual gas and possibly gas hydrate. The combined effects of uplift and erosion, in contrast, result in the preservation of a remnant BSR within the gas hydrate stability zone, whilst a new BSR forms locally at the present-day BGHS. However, the limited occurrence of double BSRs in seismic data and the model both suggest that the formation of a deeper BSR is limited by gas supply. Formation of significant gas hydrate at this deeper level only occurs in areas of focused gas migration. This slow formation of gas hydrate also has implications for the response to glacio-eustatic sea-level rise: gas hydrates are more likely to accumulate above the BGHS corresponding to the last glacial maximum, whereas only small amounts formed above the deeper present-day BGHS. Hence, future bottom water warming will, at least initially, not lead to significant methane release from dissociating gas hydrates in deep water.