Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Weiyuan County in Gansu, China

As the impacts of climate change worsen, the global community prioritizes addressing it and fostering low-carbon societies. Urban planning focuses on creating compact, smart-growth cities that prioritize low-carbon, green development, with resource and environmental capacities as hard constraints. Balancing urban development, environmental protection, and accurate urban boundary delineation is vital for stable growth. In this study, the ecosystem services of Weiyuan County, Gansu Province, were assessed using the InVEST model’s habitat quality and carbon storage modules. Key ecological protection areas with high biodiversity and carbon storage were identified. The CA-Markov model simulated urban expansion, dynamically coordinating ecological and urban development. Weiyuan County’s habitat quality was mainly intermediate. In the county’s central area, construction land coverage was 0.29 km2 in the priority protection zone and 0.49 km2 in the controlled development zone. Urban development boundaries in Weiyuan County were delineated based on ecosystem function rating and CA-Markov delineation. This method enhances urban management in ecologically fragile areas, promoting sustainable development and providing a reference for eco-economic sustainability in other fragile Chinese cities.