HydraMap v.2: Prediction of Hydration Sites and Desolvation Energy with Refined Statistical Potentials

The complex network of water molecules within the binding pocket of a target protein undergoes alterations upon ligand binding, presenting a significant challenge for conventional molecular modeling methods to accurately characterize and compute the associated energy changes. We have previously developed an empirical method, HydraMap (J. Chem. Inf. Model. 2020, 60, 4359–4375), which employs statistical potentials to predict hydration sites and compute desolvation energy, achieving a reasonable balance between accuracy and speed. In this work, we present its improved version, namely, HydraMap v.2. We updated the statistical potentials for protein–water interactions through an analysis of 17 042 crystal protein structures. We also introduced a new feature to evaluate ligand–water interactions by incorporating statistical potentials derived from the solvated structures of 9878 small organic molecules produced by molecular dynamics simulations. By combining these potentials, HydraMap v.2 can predict and compare the hydration sites in a binding pocket before and after ligand binding, identifying key water molecules involved in the binding process, such as those forming bridging hydrogen bonds and unstable ones that can be replaced. We demonstrated the application of HydraMap v.2 in explaining the structure–activity relationship of a panel of MCL-1 inhibitors. The desolvation energies calculated by summing the energy change of each hydration site before and after ligand binding showed good correlation with known ligand binding affinities on six target proteins. In conclusion, HydraMap v.2 offers a cost-effective solution for estimating the desolvation energy during protein–ligand binding and also is practical in guiding lead optimization in structure-based drug discovery.