Metabolic dysfunction–associated fatty liver disease predicts new onset of chronic kidney disease better than fatty liver or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

ABSTRACT Background Possible associations of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with fatty liver (FL) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have recently been focused on. Metabolic dysfunction–associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), defined as FL with overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus or metabolic abnormalities, has been proposed as a new feature of chronic liver disease. However, the relationship between MAFLD and new onset of CKD has not been fully addressed. Methods We investigated the associations of FL, NAFLD and MAFLD with the development of CKD, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or positive for urinary protein, over a 10-year period in 28 890 Japanese subjects who received annual health examinations. After exclusion of subjects with no data for abdominal ultrasonography and subjects with CKD at baseline, a total of 13 159 subjects (men 8581, women 4578; mean age 48 years) were recruited. Results The prevalence of FL, NAFLD and MAFLD was 34.6% (men 45.1%, women 15.1%), 32.8% (men 42.7%, women 14.5%) and 32.3% (men 42.4%, women 13.4%), respectively. During the 10-year follow-up period, 2163 subjects (men 1475, women 688) had new onset of CKD. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model analyses showed that MAFLD [hazard ratio 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.02–1.26); P = .027] but not FL or NAFLD was an independent risk factor for new onset of CKD after adjustment of age, sex, eGFR, current smoking habit, ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, overweight/obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia. The addition of MAFLD [continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) 0.154, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) 0.0024] to traditional risk factors without metabolic abnormalities significantly improved the discriminatory capacity better than did the addition of FL (NRI 0.138, IDI 0.0018) or NAFLD (NRI 0.132, IDI 0.0017). Conclusions MAFLD is modestly and independently associated with new onset of CKD and predicts the risk for development of CKD better than FL or NAFLD.