Time trends in the incidence of pelvic organ prolapse across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

As a female-specific health problem, pelvic organ prolapse (POP) causes serious damage to the physical and psychological health of numerous women, which poses a significant challenge to women's health care worldwide, especially in developing countries. We conducted an in-depth analysis of trends in the incidence of POP over the past 30 years globally and in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS countries). Data on the incidence of POP were obtained by location (5 countries), age (15–94 years old), year (1990–2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the net drift, local drift, age effects, period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019. The all-age incidence rate for POP in 2019 increased from 283.28/100,000 (95% UI: 229.97, 340.34) in China to 444.81/100,000 (369.92, 526.15) in Brazil, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was highest in India 400.06/100,000 (325.98, 476.91) and lowest in China 187.74/100,000 (154.21, 224.43). There was an emerging transition of incidences from the young population (15–39 years) to the middle and older population (≥ 40 years) in Brazil and India. The current findings reflect the different age, period, and cohort effects on POP incidence trends at global and BRICS levels. The BRICS countries have made different progress in reducing the prevalence of POP. We fully recognize the diversity of internal environments in the BRICS countries and suggest an incremental approach to advancing POP prevention matters based on possible policy-driven human and financial resources in a given setting.