Predicting Elimination of Small-Molecule Drug Half-Life in Pharmacokinetics Using Ensemble and Consensus Machine Learning Methods

Half-life is a significant pharmacokinetic parameter included in the excretion phase of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion. It is one of the key factors for the successful marketing of drug candidates. Therefore, predicting half-life is of great significance in drug design. In this study, we employed eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost), randomForest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and supporting vector machine (SVM) to build quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models on 3512 compounds and evaluated model performance by using root-mean-square error (RMSE), R², and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics and interpreted features by SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP). Furthermore, we developed consensus models through integrating four individual models and validated their performance using a Y-randomization test and applicability domain analysis. Finally, matched molecular pair analysis was used to extract the transformation rules. Our results revealed that XGboost outperformed other individual models (RMSE = 0.176, R² = 0.845, MAE = 0.141). The consensus model integrating all four models continued to enhance prediction performance (RMSE = 0.172, R² = 0.856, MAE = 0.138). We evaluated the reliability, robustness, and generalization ability via Y-randomization test and applicability domain analysis. Meanwhile, we utilized SHAP to interpret features and employed matched molecular pair analysis to extract chemical transformation rules that provide suggestions for optimizing drug structure. In conclusion, we believe that the consensus model developed in this study serve as a reliable tool to evaluate half-life in drug discovery, and the chemical transformation rules concluded in this study could provide valuable suggestions in drug discovery.