Suicide risk stratification among major depressed patients based on a machine learning approach and whole-brain functional connectivity

Suicide risk stratification and individual-level prediction among major depressive disorder (MDD) is important but unrecognized. Here, we construct models to detect suicidality in MDD using machine learning (ML) and whole-brain functional connectivity (FC).A cross-sectional assessment was conducted on 200 subjects, including 126 MDD with high suicide risk (HSR; 73 patients with suicidal ideation [SI], 53 patients with suicidal attempts [SA]), 36 patients with low suicide risk (LSR) and 38 healthy controls (HCs). Whole-brain FC features were calculated, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used for feature selection. A support vector machine (SVM) was performed to build models to distinguish MDD from HCs, and for suicide risk stratification among MDD. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was performed for validation.The models constructed using SVM on whole-brain FC had powerful classification efficiency in screening MDD from HCs (accuracy = 88.50 %), and in suicide risk stratification among MDD patients (with accuracy = 84.56 % and 74.60 % in classifying patients with HSR or LSR, and SA or SI, respectively). Subsequent analysis demonstrated that intra-network dysconnectivity in the sensorimotor network and inter-network dysconnectivity between the default and dorsal attention network could characterize HSR and SA in MDD, separately.This study was a single center cohort study without external validation.These findings indicate ML approaches are useful in suicide risk stratification among MDD based on whole-brain FC, which may help to identify individuals with different suicide risks in MDD and provide an individual-level prediction.