Increased ladybird predation and metabolism do not counterbalance increased field aphid population growth under experimental warming

Abstract Climate change may have diverse and complex impacts on species interactions, destabilizing food webs and ecosystem services. The effects of warming on the top‐down biological control of crop pests have been considerably less studied than bottom‐up effects through crop physiological changes. We studied the effect of a 2°C warming in the laboratory and in wheat fields on the predation and metabolism of Harmonia axyridis on wheat aphids using molecular gut content analysis. We also measured the effects of warming on the predation rate and functional response of H. axyridis on each aphid species in the laboratory, as well as on DNA degradation rate. Field densities of Sitobion avenae and Rhopalosiphum padi , the two most abundant wheat aphid species, were increased by 2 and 2.5 times, respectively, under experimental warming, but densities of H. axyridis were not. Field predation rate of H. axyridis on these two aphid was found to be about 25% lower under elevated temperature. This could have been due to faster prey digestion, since degradation of the preferred aphid species, Sitobion avenae , was 1.5 times faster under elevated temperature. However, the functional response of H. axyridis larvae on these two species was 1.5 times higher under warming over the range of prey densities tested (50–250 over 24 h). The total predation rate of H. axyridis larvae on a mixture of S. avenae , R. padi and Schizaphis graminum aphid prey was also increased by 1.4 times, but consumption of R. padi aphids was increased while that of S. graminum was decreased under warming. Overall, our results show that global warming could strongly increase pest outbreaks and destabilize biological pest control, which would likely result in accrued yield losses. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.