Estimation of the potential spread risk of COVID-19: Occurrence assessment along the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River basins in Hubei, China

Given that the novel coronavirus was detected in stool and urine from diagnosed patients, the potential risk of its transmission through the water environment might not be ignored. In the current study, to investigate the spread possibility of COVID-19 via the environmental media, three typical rivers (Yangtze, Han, and Fu River) and watershed cities in Hubei province of China were selected, and a more comprehensive risk assessment analysis method was built with a risk index proposed. Results showed that the risk index in the Yangtze River Basin is about 10−12, compared to 10−10 and 10−8 in the Han and Fu River Basins, and the risk index is gradually reduced from Wuhan city to the surrounding cities. The safety radius and safety time period for the Yangtze, Han, and Fu River are 8 km/14 h, 20 km/30 h and 36 km/36 h, respectively. The linear relationship between the risk potential calculated by the QMRA model and the multiple linear regression proved that the built index model is statistically significant. By comparing the theoretical removal rates for the novel coronavirus, our study proposed an effective method to estimate the potential spread risk of COVID-19 in the typical river basins.