Fertility intentions and actual fertility: A complex relationship.

People are regularly asked in sample surveys whether they wish to have children in the future. Can we rely on their answers to predict birth rates in the years to come? Why in some cases do their wishes not come true? Because they misjudged the direction their life would take? Because unforeseen problems such as the death of a partner divorce or unemployment obliged them to postpone or even abandon their fertility projects? Laurent Toulemon and Maria Rita Testa present the results of the latest French survey on this topic. We often assume that it is simple to ask people of childbearing age how many children they wish to have and then to measure the gap between aspirations and reality by comparing the desired and the actual number of children. If the gap proves to be negative then family policy should be adjusted accordingly. Unfortunately the relationship between intended and actual fertility is not quite so straightforward. (excerpt)