Time trends in the incidence of oesophageal cancer in Asia: Variations across populations and histological types

We aimed to assess temporal trends in incidence rates of oesophageal cancer in Asian countries. Using data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, we examined the temporal trends in incidence rates of oesophageal cancer by population and histological type in seven Asian countries in 1988–2007. Age-period-cohort analyses estimated the overall annual percentage changes (net drifts) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in incidence rates. The age-standardised incidence rate of oesophageal cancer declined in most Asian populations, but remained relatively unchanged in Japan and Israel. The rate of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma decreased in Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, but was stable in Japan. The net drifts were statistically significant in men in Hong Kong (−3.4%, 95% CI: −6.1%, −0.7%) and in women in Singapore (−10.1%, 95% CI: −14.4%, −5.5%). The age-standardised incidence rates of oesophageal adenocarcinoma were below 2 and 0.5 per 100 000 in men and women, respectively, across all periods in the all registers containing valid data on histological type. The age-standardised incidence rate of oesophageal adenocarcinoma slightly increased in Japan, Singapore, and Israel, although the net drift was statistically significant only in Israeli men (4.9%, 95% CI: 0.8%, 9.1%). The overall incidence rates of oesophageal cancer declined in most Asian countries, which is due to a decrease in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma incidence. However, attention needs to be paid to a probable beginning of an increasing incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma in Asia.