CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a more reliable prognostic factor for survival than pathology-diagnosed extension

To determine the correlation between CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), pathology-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension, and survival in patients with PDAC. This retrospective study included 87 patients with resected PDAC. Two radiologists evaluated negative ((i) tumours surrounded by the pancreatic parenchyma and (ii) tumours contacting the pancreatic surface) or positive ((iii) tumours with peri-pancreatic strand appearances and/or with expansive growth) CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension. Clinical, pathological, and CT imaging characteristics predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using Cox proportional-hazards models. Diagnostic accuracy for pathology-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension was also assessed. CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension (42/87 tumours, 48.3%; κ = 0.82) had a higher hazard ratio (HR) for the DFS (HR, 5.30; p < 0.01) and OS (HR, 5.31; p < 0.01) rates than pathology-diagnosed extension in univariable analyses. It was also an independent prognostic factor for the DFS (HR, 4.22; p < 0.01) and OS (HR, 4.38; p < 0.01) rates in multivariable analyses. Of 45 tumours without CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension, pathology-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension was observed in 2/8 (25.0%) and 32/37 (86.5%) tumours with CT categories (i) and (ii), respectively. However, the differences in the survival rates between patients with CT categories (i) and (ii) were insignificant, although those in the latter category had significantly better survival rates than those with CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension (category (iii)). CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension was a better prognostic factor than pathology-diagnosed extension and considered an independent factor for the postoperative DFS and OS rates with reasonable frequency and high reproducibility, despite the low diagnostic accuracy for predicting pathology-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension. • A CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension had a higher hazard ratio for both disease-free survival and overall survival compared to pathology-diagnosed extension in univariable survival analyses. • A CT-diagnosed extra-pancreatic extension was a significant independent predictor of both disease-free survival and overall survival, as observed in multivariable survival analyses. • Patients with tumours contacting with the pancreatic surface on CT images (CT category (ii)) showed similar survival rates to those whose tumours were surrounded by the pancreatic parenchyma (CT category (i)), although many tumours with CT category (ii) extended pathologically beyond the pancreas.