The Spatial Dependence of Flood Hazard and Risk in the United States

大洪水 洪水(心理学) 重现期 环境科学 震级(天文学) 空间相关性 百年一遇洪水 水文学(农业) 统计 自然地理学 地理 数学 地质学 物理 心理治疗师 天文 岩土工程 考古 心理学
作者
Niall Quinn,Paul Bates,Jeffrey Neal,Andy Smith,Oliver Wing,Chris Sampson,James A. Smith,Janet E. Heffernan
出处
期刊:Water Resources Research [Wiley]
卷期号:55 (3): 1890-1911 被引量:104
标识
DOI:10.1029/2018wr024205
摘要

Abstract In this paper we seek to understand the nature of flood spatial dependence over the conterminous United States. We extend an existing conditional multivariate statistical model to enable its application to this large and heterogenous region and apply it to a 40‐year data set of ~2,400 U.S. Geological Survey gauge series records to simulate 1,000 years of U.S. flooding comprising more than 63,000 individual events with realistic spatial dependence. A continental‐scale hydrodynamic model at 30 m resolution is then used to calculate the economic loss arising from each of these events. From this we are able to compute the probability that different values of U.S. annual total economic loss due to flooding are exceeded (i.e., a loss‐exceedance curve). Comparing these data to an observed flood loss‐exceedance curve for the period 1988–2017 shows a reasonable match for annual losses with probability below 10% (e.g., >1 in 10‐year return period). This analysis suggests that there is a 1% chance of U.S. annual fluvial flood losses exceeding $78Bn in any given year, and a 0.1% chance of them exceeding $136Bn. Analysis of the set of stochastic events and losses yields new insights into the nature of flooding and flood risk in the United States. In particular, we confirm the strong relationship between flood affected area and event peak magnitude, but show considerable variability in this relationship between adjacent U.S. regions. The analysis provides a significant advance over previous national flood risk analyses as it gives the full loss‐exceedance curve instead of simply the average annual loss.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
RC_Wang应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
刚刚
刚刚
共享精神应助Volcano采纳,获得10
4秒前
4秒前
4秒前
ali完成签到,获得积分20
5秒前
han发布了新的文献求助10
6秒前
大个应助无限雨南采纳,获得10
7秒前
丘比特应助幽默尔蓝采纳,获得10
7秒前
EED发布了新的文献求助10
8秒前
8秒前
yy完成签到,获得积分10
9秒前
9秒前
9秒前
李爱国应助十三儿采纳,获得10
10秒前
ali发布了新的文献求助10
11秒前
11秒前
HOME发布了新的文献求助10
13秒前
熊大哥发布了新的文献求助10
15秒前
16秒前
科研马完成签到,获得积分10
17秒前
猫和老鼠发布了新的文献求助10
18秒前
18秒前
19秒前
发篇Sci不过分吧完成签到,获得积分20
19秒前
奥特超曼应助易槐采纳,获得10
21秒前
21秒前
上官若男应助Supreme采纳,获得10
21秒前
熊大哥完成签到,获得积分10
21秒前
21秒前
22秒前
小蘑菇应助威武的手链采纳,获得10
22秒前
可爱千兰完成签到,获得积分10
22秒前
十三儿完成签到,获得积分20
22秒前
23秒前
23秒前
木木发布了新的文献求助20
23秒前
重要鑫磊完成签到,获得积分10
25秒前
25秒前
ccc发布了新的文献求助10
26秒前
高分求助中
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 500
‘Unruly’ Children: Historical Fieldnotes and Learning Morality in a Taiwan Village (New Departures in Anthropology) 400
Indomethacinのヒトにおける経皮吸収 400
Phylogenetic study of the order Polydesmida (Myriapoda: Diplopoda) 370
基于可调谐半导体激光吸收光谱技术泄漏气体检测系统的研究 350
Robot-supported joining of reinforcement textiles with one-sided sewing heads 320
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3988920
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3531290
关于积分的说明 11253247
捐赠科研通 3269903
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1804830
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 882027
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 809052