Comparing the accuracy of prediction models to detect clinically relevant post-hepatectomy liver failure early after major hepatectomy

Abstract Background Arterial lactate measurements were recently suggested as an early predictor of clinically relevant post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). This needed to be evaluated in the subgroup of major hepatectomies only. Method This observational cohort study included consecutive elective major hepatectomies at Karolinska University Hospital from 2010 to 2018. Clinical risk factors for PHLF, perioperative arterial lactate measurements and routine lab values were included in uni- and multivariable regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristics and risk cut-offs were calculated. Results In total, 649 patients constituted the study cohort, of which 92 developed PHLF grade B/C according to the International Study Group of Liver Surgery (ISGLS). Lactate reached significantly higher intra- and postoperative levels in PHLF grades B and C compared to grade A or no liver failure (all P < 0.002). Lactate on postoperative day (POD) 1 was superior to earlier measurement time points in predicting PHLF B/C (AUC 0.75), but was outperformed by both clinical risk factors (AUC 0.81, P = 0.031) and bilirubin POD1 (AUC 0.83, P = 0.013). A multivariable logistic regression model including clinical risk factors and bilirubin POD1 had the highest AUC of 0.87 (P = 0.006), with 56.6% sensitivity and 94.7% specificity for PHLF grade B/C (cut-off ≥0.32). The model identified 46.7% of patients with 90-day mortality and had an equally good discriminatory potential for mortality as the established ISGLS criteria for PHLF grade B/C but could be applied already on POD1. Conclusion The potential of lactate to predict PHLF following major hepatectomy was inferior to a prediction model consisting of clinical risk factors and bilirubin on first post-operative day.