Spatio-temporal variation of ecosystem services and the response to urbanization: Evidence based on Shandong province of China

Rapid urbanization has brought about continuous urban expansion, which has put enormous pressure on ecosystems. In this paper, we take both temporal and spatial dimensions into account to discuss the interaction between various ecological services (ESs) and urbanization in Shandong Province based on data at different scales. We utilize the InVEST model for quantifying ESs indicators. Pearson correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression were used to investigate the relationship with the four urbanization indicators. The results of the study indicate that with the development of urbanization, the regulating and supporting services of land in Shandong province show an upward trend. In contrast, the supply services show a downward trend. There is a significant correlation between ESs and urbanization (p < 0.05). Regarding sub-indicators, water yield (WY) increases with urbanization, and carbon sequestration (CS)/grain providing (GP)/habitat quality (HQ) are negatively correlated with the four urbanization indicators. Geographically weighted regressions show that the results fit well only when we choose counties as the study scale, and there is a clear tendency of aggregation. In summary, this paper clarifies the spatio-temporal variation of ESs and the response to urbanization, which provides an effective reference for ecosystem management in Shandong Province. This paper suggests that the government should formulate targeted policies for ecosystem service management in different regions and make appropriate dynamic adjustments to the spatial scale of policy formulation.