Information asymmetry and the profitability of technical analysis

Do informed investors leave a trace in the market? This study shows that the portfolios composed of stocks with a high probability of informed trading (PIN) earn significantly higher returns under moving average strategies than a buy-and-hold strategy. The abnormal returns cannot be explained by a Fama-French five-factor model with an additional momentum factor or transaction costs and yet exists even after imposing delayed trades or controlling for firm size, volatility, and liquidity. Portfolios with alternative information asymmetry measures report similar albeit weaker results.