Tumor Growth Kinetics Based on Initial Tumor Volume Doubling Time in Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background: During active surveillance (AS) of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs), the majority remain stable, while some exhibit either an increase or a decrease in tumor diameter or tumor volume (TV). We aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes and relevant parameters influencing tumor growth kinetics of low-risk PTCs. Methods: This retrospective cohort study evaluated clinical parameters of 402 patients with low-risk PTC sized <2 cm, with a follow-up duration over 3 years. Changes in maximum tumor diameter, TV, and initial TV doubling time (i-TVDT) calculated within 3 years were assessed. A significant change in TV was defined as a change of 75% or more. Results: Of the 402 patients with low-risk PTC, 93.3% (375/402) were diagnosed with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. During a median follow-up of 5 years, 3.4% (14/402) of patients developed new cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis, and 8.2% (33/402) experienced a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The i-TVDT of <5 years emerged as an independent risk factor for both maximal diameter growth and new LN metastasis (p < 0.001 and p = 0.04, respectively). Based on TV changes and i-TVDT during AS, we identified four statistically significant tumor kinetic patterns (p < 0.001): Stable (±75% change in TV), Rapid growth (TV increase >75% and i-TVDT <5 years), Slow growth (TV increase >75% and i-TVDT ≥5 years), and Shrinkage (TV decrease >75%). Most of the PTCs remained stable (67.7%), but 17.2% were rapidly growing, with a median onset of growth of 2.0 years. Slowly growing PTCs, comprising 10.9%, grew at a median of 4.3 years. A minority, 4.2%, exhibited shrinkage. In total, 115 (28.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery >12 months after initiating AS. The reasons for delayed surgery included patient preference (51/115, 44.3%), disease progression (31/115, 27.0%), and suspected disease progression, which was referred to as tumor growth not meeting the criteria of an increase of ≥3 mm in maximal tumor diameter (17/115, 14.8%). Conclusion: An i-TVDT of <5 years serves as an important prognostic indicator for disease progression, including tumor growth and new LN metastasis. The four tumor kinetic patterns based on TV changes and i-TVDT assist in guiding personalized decisions early in AS.