Development of a preoperative score to predict surgical difficulty in liver transplantation

Abstract

Background

A difficulty score to predict intraoperative surgical complexity in liver transplantation has never been developed. The aim of this study was to assess factors associated with a difficult liver transplant and develop a score to predict difficult surgery.

Methods

All patients undergoing deceased donor whole liver transplantation from 2012 to 2019 at a single center were included. Estimated intraoperative blood loss (mL/kg) and surgery duration (skin-to-arterial reperfusion time) were used as surrogates of difficulty. Based on these variables, the study population was divided into 2 groups: high risk and standard risk of difficulty. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors associated with a demanding liver transplantation and develop a difficulty score.

Results

A total of 515 patients were included in the study population, and 101 (20%) were considered difficult operations. Patients with a higher risk of difficulty showed a significantly higher rate of Clavien-Dindo ≥III complications (50.5% vs 24.4%, P = .001) and a longer hospital stay (19 vs 16 days, P = .001). Preoperative factors associated with difficulty were retransplantation (odds ratio 4.34, P = .001), preoperative portal vein thrombosis (odds ratio 3.419, P = .001), previous upper abdominal surgery (odds ratio 2.161, P = .003), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (odds ratio 1.985, P < .02), and prior variceal bleeding (odds ratio 1.401, P = .051). A 10-point difficulty score was created, showing a negative predictive value of 84% at 4 points.

Conclusion

Difficult liver transplantation surgery, as assessed by skin-to-arterial reperfusion time and estimated blood loss, is associated with worse perioperative outcomes. We developed a simple score with clinical preoperative variables that predicts difficult surgery, and therefore, it may help to optimize allocation policies and perioperative logistics.