Can the Digital Economy Achieve Low-Carbon Development? An Analysis Based on the Dual Perspectives of Reducing Emissions and Increasing Efficiency

The digital economy is an important driver for promoting the green transformation of the manufacturing industry, as well as a key engine for achieving China’s goals of reaching peak carbon, carbon neutrality, and high-quality economic development. This study uses provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021 as research samples and empirically analyzes the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions by constructing a two-way fixed-effects model. The research findings show that the development of the digital economy can restrain the increasing scale of carbon emissions and improve carbon efficiency. A mediation effect analysis reveals that the digital economy can achieve emission reduction and efficiency improvement through the upgrading of consumption structures, while the upgrading of energy structures has the opposite effect, increasing carbon emissions. Further, a heterogeneity analysis indicates that the carbon reduction effect of the digital economy shows a trend of being higher in the west and lower in the east, higher in the north and lower in the south, higher in provinces with high openness compared to those with low openness, and higher in provinces with a good business environment compared to those with an average business environment. Based on these conclusions, recommendations are proposed at three levels: promoting the integration of the digital economy with manufacturing; fully leveraging the effects of the digital economy in relation to upgrading energy structures and consumption structures; and exploring collaborative mechanisms for regional digital development, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the development of the digital economy and realization of the “dual carbon” goals.