A Hybrid Prediction Model for Pumping Well System Efficiency Based on Stacking Integration Strategy

The current prediction model for the system efficiency of pumping units primarily relies on a mechanistic approach. However, this approach incorporates numerous unnecessary factors, thereby, increasing the cost associated with predictions. With the improvement of the oil field database, the available information is increasing. Some scholars propose a prediction model based on a single neural network, however, such models face challenges in effectively capturing complex data, resulting in lower prediction accuracy and limited resistance to interference. To solve the above problems, the study proposes a novel stacking integrated learning prediction model, which incorporates fivefold cross‐validation. First, the magnitude of the correlation coefficient was quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Second, the impact and predictive features were normalized. Final, convolutional neural network (CNN), recurrent neural network (RNN), Long Short‐Term Memory network (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and transformer are used as the base models, and fully connected neural network (FNN) is used as the metamodel. Each base model was trained by fivefold cross‐validation, and the predicted values of each fold were stacked by rows. Next, the predicted values of each base model are stacked by columns as input variables to the metamodel and metamodel learning is performed, and the stacking integrated learning prediction model based on fivefold crossover validation is established. To validate the accuracy of the model, we selected 5,000 actual well parameters, including 26 impact features and one predictive feature, for comparative analysis. This analysis presents the maximum percentage reduction in mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of our proposed integrated learning model concerning a single neural network prediction model as 28.26%, 24.40%, and 15.66%, respectively. The maximum percentage improvement in R2 is 17.74%. It shows that our proposed integrated learning prediction model has high prediction accuracy.