GLP-1 receptor agonists and pancreatic cancer risk: target trial emulation using real-world data

Abstract Background Data on the effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) on pancreatic cancer incidence are limited and inconsistent. Here we evaluate the association of GLP-1RAs, alone and in combinations, with incident pancreatic cancer risk in a real-world population, stratified by obesity and smoking status. Methods This retrospective cohort included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were prescribed GLP-1RAs or other nonglucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist antidiabetes medications between January 2013 and March 2019 and had no prior diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. The incident (first-time) diagnosis of pancreatic cancer during a 5-year follow-up was compared between propensity-score matched cohorts of patients prescribed GLP-1RAs vs other nonglucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist antidiabetes medications. Subgroup analyses were performed in patients stratified by the status of obesity and tobacco use disorder. We also compared GLP-1RA combination therapies with monotherapies. Time-to-first-event analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards and Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, with the hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval calculated. Results The study population comprised 1 636 056 eligible patients including 167 091 prescribed GLP-1RAs and 1 468 965 prescribed other antidiabetes medications. GLP-1RAs were associated with a statistically significant decreased risk for pancreatic cancer incidence compared with each of 6 nonglucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist antidiabetes medications with hazard ratios ranging from 0.42 to 0.82. The reduction was greater in patients with obesity and tobacco use disorder than in those without. GLP-1RA combination therapies were associated with lower pancreatic cancer risk compared with monotherapies. Conclusions GLP-1RAs were associated with reduced pancreatic cancer incidence in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Further studies and trials are needed to explore mechanisms and confirm causal effects.